After week 3, 2026 in the NFL, the Buffalo Bills and the Kansas City Chiefs are the hottest candidates in the AFC with a >90% chance to make it into the playoffs. Followed surprisingly by the Las Vegas Raiders(!). The LA Charges and the Houston Texans are still winless, with the Charges having the least chances with just 5.1% to claim a spot in the postseason.
The Minnesota Vikings and the San Francisco 49ers still rule the NFC with playoff probabilities of 92.5% and 89% respectively. At least heuristically. The 49ers are once again plagued with injuries and it will be interesting to see if they can continue their win streak. At the bottom end the Arizona Cardinals despite a promising start in week #1 even fell behind the disappointing Tampa Bay Buccaneers who are still winless. The Cardinals are having the tougher schedule being the the NFC West and also playing against the AFC West, whereas the Buccaneers are ‘just’ in the NFC South and are also playing against the NFC North this year.
See the whole simulation: NFL Monte Carlo Playoff Ranking Simulation .