After week 4/2026 in the NFL, the Kansas City Chiefs, the San Francisco 49ers and the Minnesota Vikings are the only undefeated teams in the NFL, assigning all of them them playoff chances above 90%.
At the bottom end, in the NFC the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are left with a chance of only 4% and in the AFC two teams are even below that: The Houston Texans (although looking good but still end up winless against the Dallas Cowyboys) with a 3.5% percent chance, and the bottomless bad Los Angeles Chargers with an even lower 2.7% chance.
Results after week 4: NFL Monte Carlo Playoff Ranking Simulation .
The simulator now creates “biggest movers” teaser images, showing the five teams with the biggest move in playoff probabilties.